The Handicappers Guide To Betting Baseball Introduction
For over a century baseball has been America’s past time, but betting on baseball has never caught on like betting on football or basketball. It could be because the game simply isn’t as popular, or exciting. Potential bettors could also be discouraged by the money line used; most American sports bettors are more familiar and comfortable with betting against a point spread.
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Well, believe it or not I am here to tell you baseball is most professional handicapper’s bread and butter.
Handicapping and betting on baseball offers the most value and profitable opportunities than any of the other sports. Just consider the fact that a team plays 162 games in a season. A baseball handicapper will have double the amount of opportunities to find favorable opportunities than in the other professional leagues. A baseball team plays ten times the games of an NFL team, how statistically significant can 16 games really be? All of these games allows players and teams to really come into their ‘true form’ so using and understanding the games statistics is more important when handicapping baseball than any of the other sports.
Baseball has been a passion of mine for over 30 years and I started handicapping as a hobby about 15 years ago. In that time I have spent each summer watching games, reading box scores, and trying to pick winners. I would spend the winter reading books and scouring over the previous seasons stats to find trends to watch for in the coming year.
The purpose of this guide is to provide some information to new and experienced baseball handicappers that I have collected in my years handicapping baseball. Even with all the information available on the internet good baseball betting advice is hard to come by. But that’s understandable; betting on baseball it is not as popular as betting on other sports.
The Handicappers Guide to Betting Baseball has been broken into three parts and is designed as a step by step guide. Over the course of each section we will walk through the process with you and handicap an actual game scheduled for the day after this article’s publishing. Below is a brief description of each section:
Handicapping Baseball Part 1: The Money Line, Pythagorean Expectation and You: In the first part of our baseball betting guide we will cover the money line bet and how it affects your required winning percentage. We will then look at what is known as the Pythagorean Expectation and the role it will play in picking your winning bets.
Handicapping Baseball Part 2: Creating Power Numbers and Predicting the Score: Power numbers are an essential tool for any sports handicapper. These numbers are the expected performance of one team against another. We will take you through the process of finding each team’s offensive and defensive power numbers. After we have the power numbers we can predict the number of runs each team will score.
Handicapping Baseball Part 3: Making a Line and Picking the Winner: Baseball betting uses a money line so we will be looking for value. Specifically we are looking for slight favorites and ‘live’ underdogs. Once we have the projected score we will determine the percentage chance one team has over the other to win the game, this will help us identify value and make a winning pick.