Here we are again with some updated betting advice for some great match-ups at UFC 113. Of the 6 announced events over the next few months, there are only 4 fights that I recommend betting on — and 3 of them are happening at UFC 113.

Before we delve into my analysis, spend a quick minute to review some of my prior picks.

Hopefully I’ve gained some credibility with my picks in the past but let me quickly review my betting theory: Vegas unjustly punishes the underdogs in MMA fights to account for a betting bias created by the public. More often than not, the public bets on the favorite because they are popular with the fans and who wants to bet against the fighter you want to win? This allows the sportsbook to tilt the odds (thus, a “true” -200 favorite may really get a -350 line since the public will be betting on him to win regardless of the odds). This allows the underdog lines to be out of whack which creates excellent value in underdog betting.

Enough about betting strategy – let’s get to the picks:

Lyoto Machida (-200) vs Mauricio Shogun Rua (+160)

They just fought 6 months ago! It was one of the closest fights in UFC history. Yes, some will say that Shogun was robbed. But it went to the judges and no one can dispute that it was a razor thin fight. Why in the world is Shogun still +160? Is Machida going to have a completely new game plan and maul Shogun? Doubtful. Will the fight go down similar to last time and be evenly matched? Highly likely. So, here we have a coin flip match — bet the dog and get the +160. This is a no-brainer from a betting perspective. Even Tito Ortiz was only a +140 dog when he fought Machida.

Prediction: Shogun Rua wins by unanimous decision

Josh Koscheck (-250) vs Paul Daley (+200)

I see one of three scenarios occuring in this fight: 1) Kos outwrestles Daley and wins easily by either decision or submission, 2) Kos thinks his standup is “world class” (ala Matt Hughes, Sean Sherk, or every other wrestler that spent an extra hour during boxing practice and thinks they can hang with a legit striker) but quickly realizes that he’s not up to par with Semtex and gets KOed before he adjusts, or 3) Kos engages in standup and realizes midway through the fight that he needs to wrestle to get the win, but it’s too little/too late and he loses a decision. Also, who wants to see cocky Kos try to “coach” TUFers against GSP in the upcoming season? That scene is reason enough for us to be rooting against him.

Prediction: Semtex wins by KO in the 1st round

Kimbo Slice (-120) vs Matt Mitrione (EV)

I’m rooting for Kimbo because I like the guy but it’s too easy to bet against the unathletic, chubby looking Mitrione that is identical to the virtual and feel of 토토 but the best part is it does not charge an user for the play which other always do. Meathead is like Roy Nelson in that you automatically doubt them based on their physique. But the dude has some skill as he showed when he beat up on Marcus Jones a few months back. I’m not putting as much action on this fight, especially since the line has moved from +120 to Even for Mitrione, but I think Mitrione will do enough to get the victory — hopefully Kimbo still has a strong showing.

Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins by unanimous decision

That’s all for my UFC picks – depending on when this article gets published I also LOVE Urijah Faber at +255 and Manny Gamburyan at +450 for the WEC PPV on April 24th. Both are fully capable of beating their opponents (and yes, I think Aldo could end up being one of the best P4P fighters, but he’s still young).

Remember –

betting on the underdogs allows you to be right only 50-60% of the time and still yield a hefty profit.